Netflix's Reports Earnings Stock Soars Again In After hours Trading

In this tough stock market it is good to see there are still a few winners... Netlfix stock symbol NFLX reported stellar earnings today and boosted their quarterly and yearly guidance. How high can this one go? Well as long as they don't disappoint this stock could easily go way higher, if they do though it could fall rather sharply.

Don't get me wrong, overall the picture for Netflix is looking pretty bright with it's recent major deals and increase in subscribers as well as gross margins.  The shorts certainly are getting cooked on this one that is for sure... I would find it hard to bet against them with the kind of increase in subscribers quarter over quarter over quarter and I think many people are still covering their positions.

Here are the highlights of the quarter...

“Q3 represents our fourth consecutive quarter of more than one million net subscriber additions. This growth is clearly driven by the strength of our streaming offering. In fact, by every measure, we are now primarily a streaming company that also offers DVD-by-mail,” said Reed Hastings, Netflix co-founder and CEO. “At the same time, the introduction of our streaming offering in Canada in late September has provided us with very encouraging signs regarding the potential for the Netflix service internationally.”

Third-Quarter 2010 Financial Highlights
Subscribers. Netflix ended the third quarter of 2010 with approximately 16,933,000 total subscribers, representing 52 percent year-over-year growth from 11,109,000 total subscribers at the end of the third quarter of 2009 and 13 percent sequential growth from 15,001,000 subscribers at the end of the second quarter of 2010.

Net subscriber change in the quarter was an increase of 1,932,000 compared to an increase of 510,000 for the same period of 2009 and an increase of 1,034,000 for the second quarter of 2010. Gross subscriber additions for the quarter totaled 4,101,000, representing 88 percent year-over-year growth from 2,180,000 gross subscriber additions in the third quarter of 2009 and 34 percent quarterover-
quarter increase from 3,059,000 gross subscriber additions in the second quarter of 2010. Of the 16,933,000 total subscribers at quarter end, 94 percent, or 15,863,000, were paid subscribers. The other 6 percent, or 1,070,000, were free subscribers. Paid subscribers represented 98 percent of total subscribers at the end of the third quarter of 2009 and 97 percent at the end of the second quarter of 2010. Revenue for the third quarter of 2010 was $553.2 million, representing 31 percent year-over-year growth from $423.1 million for the third quarter of 2009, and 6 percent sequential growth from $519.8 million for the second quarter of 2010.

Gross margin for the third quarter of 2010 was 37.7 percent compared to 34.9 percent for the third quarter of 2009 and 39.4 percent for the second quarter of 2010. GAAP net income for the third quarter of 2010 was $38.0 million, or $0.70 per diluted share compared to GAAP net income of $30.1 million, or $0.52 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2009 and GAAP net income of $43.5 million, or $0.80 per diluted share, for the second quarter of 2010. GAAP net income grew 26 percent on a year-over-year basis and GAAP EPS grew 35 percent on a year-over-year basis.
Percentage of subscribers who watched instantly more than 15 minutes of a TV episode or movie in the third quarter of 2010 was 66 percent compared to 41 percent for the same period of 2009 and 61 percent for the second quarter of 2010. In Q4 a majority of Netflix subscribers will watch more content streamed from Netflix than delivered on DVD. With that transition in the business from mostly DVD to mostly streaming, this will be the last quarter the company will report this metric. Subscriber acquisition cost for the third quarter of 2010 was $19.81 per gross subscriber addition compared to $26.86 for the same period of 2009 and $24.37 for the second quarter of 2010. Churn for the third quarter of 2010 was 3.8 percent compared to 4.4 percent for the third quarter of 2009 and 4.0 percent for the second quarter of 2010. Churn includes free subscribers as well as paying subscribers who elect not to renew their monthly subscription service during the quarter.

Free cash flow4 for the third quarter of 2010 was $7.8 million compared to $25.5 million for the third quarter of 2009 and $34.2 million for the second quarter of 2010. Trailing twelve-month free cash flow for the third quarter of 2010 was $109.8 million compared to $117.9 million for the third quarter of 2009 and $127.5 million for the second quarter of 2010. Cash provided by operating activities for the third quarter of 2010 was $42.2 million compared to $78.3 million for the third quarter of 2009 and $60.3 million for the second quarter of 2010.

Business Outlook
The Company’s performance expectations for the fourth quarter of 2010 and full-year 2010 are as follows:
Fourth-Quarter 2010
 Ending subscribers of 19.0 million to 19.7 million, up from 17.7 million to 18.5 million
 Revenue of $586 million to $598 million, versus $580 million to $596 million
 GAAP net income of $32 million to $40 million, unchanged
 GAAP EPS of $0.59 to $0.74 per diluted share, unchanged

Google Reports Solid 2nd Quarter Earnings Again

Wall Street yawn as Google reported stellar earnings as usual. Here are some highlights from the release...

Q2 Financial Summary

Google reported revenues of $5.52 billion for the quarter ended June 30, 2009, an increase of 3% compared to the second quarter of 2008. Google reports its revenues, consistent with GAAP, on a gross basis without deducting traffic acquisition costs (TAC). In the second quarter of 2009, TAC totaled $1.45 billion, or 27% of advertising revenues.

Google reports operating income, operating margin, net income, and earnings per share (EPS) on a GAAP and non-GAAP basis. The non-GAAP measures, as well as free cash flow, an alternative non-GAAP measure of liquidity, are described below and are reconciled to the corresponding GAAP measures in the accompanying financial tables.

• GAAP operating income for the second quarter of 2009 was $1.87 billion, or 34% of revenues. This compares to GAAP operating income of $1.58 billion, or 29% of revenues, in the second quarter of 2008. Non-GAAP operating income in the second quarter of 2009 was $2.17 billion, or 39% of revenues. This compares to non-GAAP operating income of $1.85 billion, or 34% of revenues, in the second quarter of 2008.
• GAAP net income for the second quarter of 2009 was $1.48 billion as compared to $1.25 billion in the second quarter of 2008. Non-GAAP net income in the second quarter of 2009 was $1.71 billion, compared to $1.47 billion in the second quarter of 2008.
• GAAP EPS for the second quarter of 2009 was $4.66 on 319 million diluted shares outstanding, compared to $3.92 for the second quarter of 2008 on 318 million diluted shares outstanding. Non-GAAP EPS in the second quarter of 2009 was $5.36, compared to $4.63 in the second quarter of 2008.
• Non-GAAP operating income and non-GAAP operating margin exclude the expenses related to stock-based compensation (SBC). Non-GAAP net income and non-GAAP EPS exclude the expenses related to SBC and the related tax benefits. In the second quarter of 2009, the charge related to SBC was $293 million as compared to $273 million in the second quarter of 2008. The tax benefit related to SBC was $69 million in the second quarter of 2009 and $48 million in the second quarter of 2008. Reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to GAAP operating income, operating margin, net income, and EPS are included at the end of this release.

As of June 30, 2009, cash, cash equivalents, and short-term marketable securities were $19.3 billion.

Google also increases it ever growing stock pile of Cash, as of June 30, 2009, cash, cash equivalents, and short-term marketable securities were $19.3 billion. Impressive, but then again I was sold on Google a long, long, time ago. Let's see how the aftermarket treats it...

Odyssey Marine Down But Not Out

When the courts ruled the Odyssey Marine (OMEX) should return the sunken treasure to the Spanish government on June 4, 2009 Odyssey's stock price lost nearly half its value in a single trading day. Without a doubt this is a huge blow to Odyssey, but the fight is not over. Anyone in their right mind would realize that Odysesey Marine should at least be given a massive finders fee for discovering, recovering and preserving this historical find.

If you caught the program on the Discovery Channel called Treasure Quest you can see that this company is serious about finding treasure. There is a lot of different shipwrecks in the sea and it is only a matter of time before they discover another big find like the Black Swan. Sure this stock is risky, but not as risky as it was at $4. Think of buying this stock like a ongoing lotto ticket, you never know when you are going to strike it rich, but you have a chance and a pretty good one if you ask me at this bargain basement prices.

What do you think about Odyssey Marine's stock, are they a good buy at these levels or do you think they could sink even lower?

Uncensored Jim Cramer John Stewart Interview

I feel it is important to watch this uncut interview between John Stewart and Jim Cramer... It kinda puts things in perspective and let's us know just how off path we have gone... So many people have been devastated from this financial collapse...

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

Jim Cramer Unedited Interview Pt. 1

Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things w/ Demetri Martin

Political Humor
Jim Cramer

The Second Part...

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

Jim Cramer Unedited Interview Pt. 2

Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things w/ Demetri Martin

Political Humor
Jim Cramer

The grand finale...

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

Jim Cramer Unedited Interview Pt. 3

Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things w/ Demetri Martin

Political Humor
Jim Cramer

What do you think? Where are we headed from here?

Google Keeps On Trucking As The Rest Of The World Burns

The recession proof Google proved that well... it's recession proof! Even with the major downturn in essentially all the economies around the world Google managed to beat analysis estimates and actually grow year over year and quarter over quarter. They manged to make GAAP operating income for the fourth quarter of 2008 of $1.86 billion! That is nothing to sneeze at when a lot of other companies are reporting losses. They also have 15.85 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term marketable securities as of December 31, 2008. Not too bad either... Here are the other highlights from the quarter...

• Revenue growth of 18% Y/Y and 3% Q/Q
– Google properties revenue growth of 22% Y/Y and 4% Q/Q
– Network revenues increased 4% Y/Y and 1% Q/Q
– International revenue was $2.9 billion
• Operational Highlights
– Traffic and revenue solid in Q4 despite difficult economic environment
– Key investments continue in our core search and ads businesses
– Increasing prioritization of our newer investments:

And my personal favorite the visual evidence of Google's growth...I don't have to tell you what to do... the numbers speak for themselves...

Rocky Ride To The Poor House

It has been a rough couple of months for the stock market the Dow fell from its high of just over 14000 down to under 8000 at one point! What a vicious drop that was... by far the worst I have traded through in my career. So what should you do now?

Well things certainly aren't looking that good with the overall economy, but the real question is how long can this downturn last? 6 months? A year? 2 years? Either way you need to consider your time horizons for your investments. Being that I tend to hold on to a position for over a year I am not worried. In fact, now is one of the best entry points I have ever seen. The valuations of stocks have come down so much that even with companies making less money then in previous years there are plenty of companies out there worth investing in. Sure it could get worse, but I think we have already put in the bottom on this downturn.

Of course if you follow the blog I kinda start to sound like a broken record, but it is important to understand. First of all don't buy all at once, as you can tell from the recent volatility in the stock market putting all your money in at once just doesn't make any sense. If you scale into a position and have a long time horizon you will do fine.

My personal recommendations at this point are ESLR, GOOG, RY, SU, ORA and YUM...

Google Reports Stellar Earnings In A Horrible Market

With investors wondering if anything will go right for them this year, Google comes out and knocks it out of the park. A glimpse of light at the end of this dark financial tunnel. Here are a couple highlights from the quarter...

Revenue growth of 31% Y/Y and 3% Q/Q
– Google properties revenue growth of 34% Y/Y and 4% Q/Q
– Network revenues increased 15% Y/Y and 1% Q/Q
– International revenue was $2.8 billion

Here is what the big wigs had to say about the quarter...

"We had a good third quarter with strong traffic and revenue growth across all of our major geographies thanks to the underlying strength of our core search and ads business. The measurability and ROI of search-based advertising remain key assets for Google," said EricSchmidt, CEO of Google. "While we are realistic about the poor state of the global economy, we will continue to manage Google for the long term, driving improvements to search and ads, while also investing in future growth areas such as enterprise, mobile, and display."

A summary of the numbers...

Google reported revenues of $5.54 billion for the quarter ended September 30, 2008, an increase of 31% compared to the third quarter of 2007 and an increase of 3% compared to the second quarter of 2008. Google reports its revenues, consistent with GAAP, on a gross basis without deducting traffic acquisition costs (TAC). In the third quarter of 2008, TAC totaled $1.50 billion, or 28% of advertising revenues.

Google reports operating income, net income, and earnings per share (EPS) on a GAAP and non-GAAP basis. The non-GAAP measures, as well as free cash flow, an alternative non-GAAP measure of liquidity, are described below and are reconciled to the corresponding GAAP measures in the accompanying financial tables.

-- GAAP operating income for the third quarter of 2008 was $1.74 billion, or 31% of revenues. This compares to GAAP operating income of $1.58 billion, or 29% of revenues, in the second quarter of 2008. Non-GAAP operating income in the third quarter of 2008 was $2.02 billion, or 37% of revenues. This compares to non-GAAP operating income of $1.85 billion, or 34% of revenues, in the second quarter of 2008.

-- GAAP net income for the third quarter of 2008 was $1.35 billion as compared to $1.25 billion in the second quarter of 2008. Non-GAAP net income in the third quarter of 2008 was $1.56 billion, compared to $1.47 billion in the second quarter of 2008.

-- GAAP EPS for the third quarter of 2008 was $4.24 on 318 million diluted shares outstanding, compared to $3.92 for the second quarter of 2008 on 318 million diluted shares outstanding. Non-GAAP EPS in the third quarter of 2008 was $4.92, compared to $4.63 in the second quarter of 2008.

-- Non-GAAP operating income, non-GAAP operating margin, non-GAAP net income, and non-GAAP EPS are computed net of stock-based compensation (SBC). In the third quarter of 2008, the charge related to SBC was $280 million as compared to $273 million in the second quarter of 2008. Tax benefits related to SBC have also been excluded from non-GAAP net income and non-GAAP EPS. The tax benefit related to SBC was $63 million in the third quarter of 2008 and $48 million in the second quarter of 2008. Reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to GAAP operating income, operating margin, net income, and EPS are included at the end of this release.

Congratulations to all the longs... and don't forget that Youtube just passed up Yahoo as the #2 search engine... that is an amazing fact!

Time To Buy Canadian Banks

With the banking industry continuing to be in free fall all around the world a new report has just come out that names Canada as the soundest banks in the world. As the banking situation continues to weaken around the world this puts Canadian banks in a good place. Royal Bank Of Canada is, and has been my favorite banking stock since even before this whole mess started. Their stock price has been holding up much better than most other banking stocks as well, but they have taken a hit in just the last week as the markets sunk. Still even off of their 52 week low this stock is still a buy. Royal Bank Of Canada provides a fat 5% dividend at this price level of $36.10 so this is a stock that pays you to own! While you might think it is crazy for someone to be recommended a banking stock in this environment, things will turn around eventually. There might even be a v shaped recovery if all goes well. As long as you have a long term view on things, now is the time to be buying, not selling. Concentrate on the future and you should do fine...

Blood In The Streets

Today marked one of the worst collapses in financial history as the Dow lost 778 points or almost 7% as the House failed to pass a bill for 750 billion dollars to help the credit markets. The Nasdaq had it even worse losing over 9% or 199 points! Brutal, absolutely brutal!

Now I hate to beat a dead horse, but if you are a long term investor this is not the end of the world. In fact, because in most cases the baby is getting thrown out with the bathwater there might even be some stocks worth owning that are looking very cheap. Unfortunately, this credit crisis has spread into mainstream and there is really no way to tell how long this will last. That is why it was so crucial to pass the bill that failed today. Every day that passes without a resolution will be a blood bath... sure not as bad as today hopefully, but who knows, there isn't any certainty what so ever which is very bad for stocks in general.

Now there are companies that I would still be picking up at this point. Let's all remember that there will be a tomorrow and a next week, next month and next year. The election is quickly approaching and both candidates are preaching investing in solar and wind power. So with that in mind I still like ESLR which was beaten up very badly by the fallout with Lehman Brothers and now stands at just over $6! I really can't believe it got that cheap, but the whole thing with Lehman Brothers caused a panic and the stock sold off. Another one I like at these levels is ORA Ormat technologies which today hit a fresh 52 week low at 36.39. These two companies are going to benefit from the next president, especially if it is Barrack Obama who has a real plan to change or energy structure.

I have said it before and I will say it again, Google GOOG is just an unbelievable buy at these levels. Today it fell $46 to $385, that's right $385! This gives it just a 25 P/E ratio! For a company that grows like Google this is very reasonable.

Now could everything crash again tomorrow and the next day? Sure, but how about 2-4 years down the line? The market will correct itself from time to time, this all be it is a real problem and we need congress to pass something ASAP, until then we will most likely drift lower.

As always, buy in increments and over time your investments will do fine. Good luck to all and most importantly don't panic...

Google Is A Screaming Long Term Buy

As I watched Google fall over 5% today I couldn't help but think there was some force pulling it down. I mean with the market up so much you would think that beaten down GOOG would shine, but just the opposite. Now in after hours Google announces a major partnership with NBC Universal to run TV ads. This stock has come down from $747 hard to find itself at nearly $420. With just a 27 P/E ratio this stock has literally never been this cheap! It really boggles the brain to even think about it. They have almost 13 billion in cash and are still raking in the money. Sure they are not smashing the park out of the numbers from last year, but you have to consider the law of large numbers and the fact that Google is throwing money in a lot of different places. They have the money to burn and they are taking advantage of that so they can reap the benefits in the years to come. I don't know about you, but I am going to be buying some Google, these price levels are just an unbelievable entry point.

Vasco Data Securities Reports Better Than Expected 2nd Quarter Earnings

Vasco Data Securities surprised Wall Street with a solid quarter lifting the stock almost 18% on over 8 times average volume. Here is what the big whig had to say about the quarter...

"We are pleased with the progress we saw in the business in Q2," stated
T. Kendall Hunt, Chairman & CEO. "Not only did we report a record level of
revenues for a quarter, but we also increased our deferred revenues and saw
a strong order flow throughout the quarter. The current order flow
reinforces our belief that our growth rates over 2007 will accelerate in
the second half of the year. We are, however, reducing our revenue guidance
for two primary reasons. One is to more fully consider the impact of our
business strategies where a larger portion of our business activity relates
to recurring software revenue, which may be deferred and recognized in
future periods. The second is to reflect a more conservative outlook for
the full year given the uncertainty of the world economies."

Net income for the second quarter ended June 30, 2008 was $7.5 million, or $0.20 per share, up 9% from $6.9 million, or $0.18 per share in the same period last year and exceeded the $0.15 predicted by the analysts.

Revenue grew by 9% to $35.4 million for the second quarter from $32.4 million in the corresponding period of the previous year, and topped Street analysts consensus estimate of $34.20 million.

Net income for the first six months of 2008 increased to $12.4 million, or $0.32 per share on revenues of $64.3 million from $11.8 million or $0.31 per share on revenues of $58.8 million in the year-ago period.

Here are a few more of the highlights from the quarter...

    Operational and Other Highlights:
 -- VASCO won 516 new customers in Q2 2008 (79 new banks and 437 new
    enterprise security customers).  For the first six months of 2008,
    VASCO won 1,107 new customers (150 banks and 957 enterprise security
    customers).
 -- Banco Itau (Brazil) secures more than 1.6 million end users with VACMAN
    Controller/Digipass GO3
 -- Independent Bankers' Bank (U.S.) secures online banking with VACMAN
    Controller/Digipass GO6
 -- Mizuho Bank (Japan), Intesa Sanpaolo (Italy) and Banco Itau (Brazil)
    receive VASCO's Market Vision Award
 -- Digipass integrated into SonicWall SSL-VPN
 -- VASCO opens subsidiary in Mumbai India
 -- VASCO expands US Channel Partner Program
 -- VASCO ranks 5th in Fortune Small Business Top 100 and 14th in
    BusinessWeek's Hot Growth Companies top 50.

Congratulations to all the longs... I still think that this is a great long term investment as the world turns more and more to online banking and security. Don't forget that Vasco Data Securities just jump up almost 17% on a day that all the major averages tumbled.

Google Misses By 9 Cents... Big Deal

Today Google reported numbers that most companies would kill for. Revenues grew 39% year over year, but this still wasn't enough to keep the bears at bay. Analysts were looking for Earnings Per Share of $4.72 Google came in at $4.63. Revenues for Google's 2nd Quarter 2008 came in at 5.37 Billion, analysts were looking for 5.4 Billion. Of course, the knee jerk reaction to this created a sell off in after hours where Google (goog) fell about 7%.

Giving Google's already decent P/E ratio this earnings report has created a fabulous buying opportunity. There P/E ratio is currently 37, but after today's earnings report it will be closer to 32 based on a price of $490 per share! To put that into perspective Yahoo is trading at a 30 P/E ratio and Apple is trading at a 35 P/E ratio. Not to mention Google is sitting on 12.7 Billion in cash! That number alone is more than a lot of companies are even worth and Google can afford to just watch it collect interest.

Do your children a favor and go out and buy some Google stock while it is on sale. That is unless you think that Google, the Internet, Advertising and Youtube are just going to disappear. Just check out these slides below from the 2nd Quarter Earnings Report...

Evergreen Solar Announces The Biggest Contract In Its History

Evergreen Solar (ESLR) shares rose nearly 11.5% today as they announced a 1.2 Billion, yes with a "B" contract with the German company IBC Solar. I am sure some of you have never heard of IBC Solar so here are the quick facts. They where established in 1982 and have installed solar panels in more than 50,000 locations!

Of course this is great for Evergreen Solar which has been beaten down along with the market and since its offering of new notes this contract raises their backlog to almost 3 Billion with only 5 customers! This contract further extends through 2013 which gives ESLR even more earnings visibility. Here is what the big wigs had to say...

“We are very pleased to begin this significant long term relationship with IBC SOLAR, the largest PV distributor in the world”, said Richard M. Feldt, Evergreen Solar's chairman, president and chief executive officer. “This contract represents the single largest contract in the history of our company and is one of the largest contracts ever between a panel manufacturer and a distributor.”

“Quality comes first at IBC SOLAR”, said Udo Möhrstedt, President and CEO of IBC SOLAR. “Our aim is to make the use of solar energy easy and competitive for our customers. Evergreen’s solar panels are one of the highest quality products in the industry. By adding Evergreen to our product portfolio, we can meet the growing demand of our customers.”

This news comes as The Michigan Economic Growth Authority Tuesday approved a 10-year, 100 percent high-tech employment tax credit for Evergreen Solar (ESLR). Valued at $1.8 million this will help with their new Midland, Michigan plant. Not only this, but the City of Midland will give Evergreen Solar a $3.9 million property tax credit.

This company is on a roll this year, but watch out they are just about to report their earnings on Thursday July 17th, so be careful if you are just starting to build a position into this stock. There is no doubt that Evergreen Solar is a great Long Term Investment, but a earnings miss here would obviously hurt the stock in the short term. As always average into this one as it is very volatile. It looks like though that any time you can pick up ESLR for under $10 at this point would be a great time to buy more. Certainly don't wait too long before jumping into the water, the analyst have really been waking up and smelling the money on this one. The simple fact that Evergreen Solar is only a 1.24 Billion Dollar is has almost 3 billion is sales backlog! This stock is prime for a serious breakout if earnings don't disappoint and this stock is still undiscovered by mainstream wallstreet.

It's A Bear Market, What To Do Now?

Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq officially hit bear market territory. A bear market simply means that an average is 20% below its all time high. That's right both the Dow and the Nasdaq have hit these lows on the same day as oil climbs to new heights! So what should you do with your money that you have invested in the stock market. Well, it is really quite simple... You should do little or nothing. No one ever made a profit selling at the bottom and anyone that has an outlook of more than a couple years should be adding to their positions not selling them at the worse point possible! You should be selling when the times are good and buying when the times are bad, it is just that simple.

Sure the economy is in the tank and oil is crippling business and consumers alike, but it won't last forever. A lot of the rise in oil has to do with a weak dollar which was caused by the federal reserve lowering interest rate to help stimulate the economy. Don't get me wrong, the Federal Reserve did the right thing, they were just a little late to the party. A lot of speculators have been pumping up oil prices too, which only makes things that much worse. The public will only take it so long, before they demand action. The oil bubble will then weaken and will in turn make the markets skyrocket back upwards. Take a look at a 20 year chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average below...

As you can see we have had corrections like this before, but the general long time trend has always been up. So let's say this time is different and oil continues to ride high. Well you should have protection, which means you should have alternative energy stocks in your portfolio. You know that with these outrageous energy cost, solar, wind and geothermal plays become all the more economically viable. Focus on the future of the world and not the past, just look at how investors did with Google, and they are just getting started! With a Democrat (most likely) coming into office you can bet that there will be some major government subsidies for all these alternative energy plays as well!

So whatever you do, don't get caught up in the selling panic and liquidate your portfolio. Even if the market continues to go down a bit more, or we even see a sell off that triggers the capitulation that everyone loves to see. We are very near the bottom and we are also very near the economic reign of terror by George W. Bush. I think history will look back at this as one of the greatest buying opportunities... Just do your research, don't buy all at once and you should do fine. Your kids will thank you...

Will Evergreen Solar Fly High On Investor Day?

"Once we get into the first quarter of next year we should start making money. We should go into the black and hopefully stay there," Chief Executive of Evergreen Solar Richard Feldt.

(ESLR) has only a 1.24 billion dollar market cap, a strong connection in Germany and a 1.85 billion dollar sales backlog as of the middle of May 2008, this company's stock is certainly worth taking a look at.

The Marlboro, Massachusetts-based company reported a first-quarter net loss of $25,000, or break-even on a per share basis, compared with a loss of $6.2 million, or 9 cents per share, in the year-earlier quarter.

Their new Devens plant opens this month and will be capable of producing 80 megawatts of wafer cells and panels a year based on Evergreen Solar's estimates.

Here is what you can expect on Thursday, June 18, 2008 from the press release...

Evergreen Solar Chairman and CEO Richard M. Feldt, Chief Financial Officer Michael El-Hillow and other members of the executive team will provide a strategic overview of the Company's business through a series of presentations. The meeting will be followed by a factory tour of the company’s new state-of the-art wafer, cell and String Ribbon™ solar panel manufacturing facility.

Just like Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), this stock could easily make a substantial move upwards once it begins consistently breaking into the black. I think it will even make a nice move on Thursday, as they show off their superior manufacturing capabilities during investor's day.

Now, I am not one for charts but you can obviously see the double top below, if you follow the company though, you would know that financial are in a much better position then they were even a year ago. Not only that, their recent stock offering which dilutes the shares artificially, have kept the share range bound. This dilution also makes it harder for any stock to go up in value initially.

Evergreen Solar looks to me like it is poised for a breakout, and this investor day could easily trigger it. Then again, I am a bit bias since Evergreen Solar has been one of my favorite long term stock picks...
What do you think of Evergreen Solar's stock?

Yahoo Seals The Deal With Google

It is final, Google (goog) has official one the search engine race. Some people might think they had already won it, but with the announcement from Yahoo today that it will begin running even more Google ads with it search results, it's over. This will certainly be good for Google's stock price, which has lost a bit of steam after even it's last earnings jump. Obviously, the test that Yahoo was running with Google went well and this should be a win-win for both companies. They have also decided to link up their instant messages services, in another sign that they plan on becoming even tighter in the future. Sorry Microsoft! Here is the press release...

Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) today announced that it has reached an agreement that gives Yahoo! the ability to use Google's search and contextual advertising technology through its AdSense™ for Search and AdSense for Content advertising programs. Under the agreement, Yahoo! has the option to display Google ads alongside its own natural search results in the U.S. and Canada. In addition, Yahoo! can serve contextually targeted ads on its U.S. and Canadian web properties as well as on its current publisher partner sites. Yahoo will continue to operate its own search engine, web properties and advertising services.

In addition, Yahoo! and Google agreed to enable interoperability between their respective instant messaging services bringing easier and broader communication to users.

"This commercial agreement provides Yahoo! with the opportunity to deliver more relevant ads to users and provide advertisers and publishers with better advertising technology to help them succeed in their own businesses," said Eric Schmidt, Chairman and CEO of Google. "This agreement will preserve the competitive and dynamic online advertising space."

As a result of the agreement, Yahoo! will be able to complement its own advertising program with Google’s advertising technology. As a result, advertisers will be able to better reach consumers, and Yahoo! and its current publisher partners can generate more revenue. Yahoo can use Google's advertising technology on as many or as few of its search results and content pages as it chooses.

This non-exclusive agreement allows Yahoo! to enter into similar agreements with other advertising providers. In addition, Yahoo! will maintain relationships with its own advertising customers and will continue to rely exclusively on its own advertising program outside of the U.S. and Canada. The agreement has a term of up to ten years: a 4-year initial term and two 3-year renewals at Yahoo!’s option. Financial terms between the two companies were not disclosed.

Although Google and Yahoo are not required to receive regulatory approval of the arrangement before implementing it, the companies have voluntarily agreed to delay implementation for up to three and a half months to give the U.S. Department of Justice time to review the arrangement.

Take a look back at all our Google posts here!

Sunken Treasure Discovered By Odyssey Marine Exploration (OMEX)

Normally, here at Stock Picky we concentrate on relatively safe stocks for the long term, but I felt like I had to share this one with my readers! The name of this speculative play is Odyssey Marine Exploration, ticket symbol (NASDAQ: OMEX). This is a company that literally hunts for sunken treasure!

Based out of Florida, Odyssey Marine Exploration has over 20 ongoing shipwreck projects throughout the world. Past projects include the shipwreck of the SS Republic which brought in 50,000 coins and 14,000 artifacts, and just last year the company announced it recovered 500,000 silver and gold pieces from The Black Swan!

As if that wasn't enough, the company just filed today that it had filed Admiralty Arrest on two more shipwreck sites. Both of these new found sites are near the English Channel, but are outside the territorial waters of any sovereign nation. The sites both contain cannon and other artifacts which are believed to dated back to the colonial period.

More good news came earlier this week as they announced they will be the focus of an 11-part Discovery Channel series. Now this might not seem like a big deal, but it will certainly bring this company into the public light, which will most like bring a lot more buyers to the table and in turn raise the stock price.

Before you get too excited though, let me remind you that this stock is very, very speculative and you could easily lose your shirt. With that in mind, I am sure you can imagine what would happen to the stock price if they made a really big find!

Now for the numbers... Odyssey Marine Exploration has only been traded on the Nasdaq since October of 2006, with a market cap of only 239 million this is a very small company. The stock has traded between $7.75 and $4.42 over the past year and today stands at around $5.00.


I look at this as a long term lottery ticket, one that could go down to zero, but could also win you that big prize. Remember, you want to be in before they make that big discovery on National Television in the upcoming documentary : )

Evergreen Solar Announces 1 Billion In Contracts

Evergreen Solar (eslr) surged over 20% yesterday as it announced that is had signed two contracts worth approximately 1 billion dollars. Evergreen Solar and German-based Ralos Vertriebs GmbH signed an agreement valued at approximately $750 million for panel deliveries beginning in 2008 and extending through 2013. They also signed an agreement just last week with an unnamed United States-based installer, for approximately $250 million. Both of these contracts are going to be manufactured in their Devens, Massachusetts plant.

In addition to the two contracts listed above Evergreen Solar (eslr) already has a backlog of $850 million from six different sources to be completed in Ever-Q, it's German based joint venture.

Here is what the big whigs at Evergreen Solar had to say about the recent contracts...

“We offer our customers a long-term value proposition because our string ribbon technology consumes less than half of the polysilicon as compared to the industry average, which enables us to provide a unique combination of cost and cell conversion efficiency," said Richard M. Feldt, Evergreen Solar's president and chief executive officer. “We will enter into selective long-term supply agreements with additional companies that also bring differentiated value to their customers and serve markets that are at the forefront of solar growth.”


So, here we are watching a company that has 1.85 billion dollar in backlog yet the entire company itself is only worth 1.32 billion by market cap! Based on this factor alone it would appear that Evergreen Solar is grossly undervalue at these levels. One of the biggest problems with solar companies is the perceived shortage of polysilicon. Evergreen has this covered already though as they have signed several long term supply agreements over the past year.

Here at Stock Picky we have been behind ESLR for a long, long time and we still believe that it is a great buy even at these much higher levels then just a couple days ago. The key of course is to not buy all at once, take advantage of the dips and always invest for the long-term. After all, this stock was a buy at $100 oil, but now at $135 people will be flocking to alternative energy plays like this one. To research more into this company check out all of our Evergreen Solar articles here!

Ormat Reports 1st Quarter 2008 Results

Why this took so long to come out, I am not quite sure, but here are the 1st quarter 2008 results for Ormat Technologies ticker NYSE:(ORA).

The Company reported net income of $10.1 million, or $0.24 per share of common stock (basic and diluted), as compared to a net loss of $5.8 million, or $0.15 per share of common stock (basic and diluted), for the first quarter of 2007. This smashed analyst's estimates of $0.18 per share!

On the revenue side though they came in a little light, revenues for the first quarter were $69.4 million, versus $61.7 million for the first quarter of 2007, an increase of 12.4%. This trailed analyst's estimates of 76.5 million.

Ormat's Board of Directors approved the payment of a quarterly cash dividend of $0.05 per share pursuant to the Company's dividend policy, which targets an annual payout ratio of at least 20% of the Company's net income, subject to Board approval. The dividend will be paid on May 27, 2008 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 20, 2008. The Company expects to pay a dividend of $0.05 per share in the next two quarters as well.

Here is what the big bosses had to say...

Dita Bronicki, Chief Executive Officer of Ormat, stated: "The first quarter performance was in line with our expectations for 2008 and highlighted our improved operating performance, increase in our overall generating capacity and improvement in power prices in certain projects.

"Since the beginning of the first quarter, we declared commercial operation for the Galena 3 and Heber South projects and continued to make progress on our exploration work to secure geothermal resources for 2010 and beyond. Also during the quarter, we strengthened our products backlog signing three EPC agreements for a total amount of over $100 million, consisting of one geothermal and two recovered energy generation power plants, out of which approximately $50 million are still subject to a Notice to Proceed. We expect to add an additional 174 MW by the end of 2009 from projects that are currently under construction, including Olkaria and Brawley," Ms. Bronicki continued.

Commenting on the outlook for 2008, Ms. Bronicki said, "Following our first quarter earnings results, we maintain our guidance for 2008 and expect our 2008 Electricity Segment revenues to be approximately $245 million. We also expect an additional approximately $9 million of revenues from our share of electricity revenues generated by Mammoth that is accounted for under the equity method. With regard to our Products Segment, we maintain our guidance for 2008 revenues and expect them to be between $70 million and $80 million."

Ms. Bronicki concluded, "We are excited with the progress we have made this quarter, especially in recovered energy generation, which has experienced increasing interest as the need for energy efficiency begins to play a greater role in combating global warming."

We will have to see what tomorrow brings for this stock as it did not appear to be traded after the earnings were released...

To see all of our posts on Ormat Technologies including an in-depth analysis click here!

Ormat Technologies, The Pure Play On Geothermal

Ormat Technologies ticker NYSE:(ora) might be looking a little pricey at first glance with it's 75 p/e, but with earnings coming up on May 6, 2008 after the close, we will soon know if the run up the past 3 months really has legs to break through it's 52 week high of $57.93. Here is their chart since becoming publicly traded...


Now for some background information in case you are not familiar with Ormat Technologies. The company designs, develops, owns and operates geothermal and recovered energy-based power plants around the world. Additionally, the company designs, manufactures and sells geothermal and recovered energy power units and other power-generating equipment, and provides related services. Ormat Technologies has more than four decades of experience in the development of environmentally-sound power, primarily in geothermal and recovered-energy generation.

The coming election is increasingly looking like alternative energy is going to win no matter if a Democrat or Republican is elected. Sure, there is Solar, but a lot of people don't realize the potential of geothermal and heat recovery systems. Ormat is the only pure play, just look at these numbers...

They also have just recently announced two deals one in Montana...

Montana-Dakota Utilities Co. have announced that Ormat has entered into an Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) agreement to build a 5.3 MW recovered energy generation facility to be located in Morton County, North Dakota. The facility, which is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2009, will produce electricity without burning additional fuel. The project, subject to regulatory approvals, will increase the utilization of the energy content by approximately 25 percent and will produce enough renewable energy to supply about 5,000 residential electric customers in Montana-Dakota's service territory.

And one in Nevada... I particularly like this side of Ormat's business... retrofitting existing power plants and turning the heat that is given off as waste into energy!

Energy Holdings Company, and Ormat Technologies Inc. have announced plans to build a six-megawatt (MW) waste-heat recovery renewable energy project in the Goodsprings area south of Las Vegas. The project, subject to regulatory approvals, is scheduled to be completed in 2010 and will produce enough renewable energy to supply 1,200 residential customers in southern Nevada. The best part about these waste-heat recovery systems is that they will generate additional power with no increase in emissions. Check out this slide that shows the dependability and cost effectiveness of various forms of energy...

If that wasn't enough, I also like Ormat's Dividend policy which is for an annual payout ratio of at least 20% of the Company’s net income, subject to Board approval. That means that as Ormat grows it's dividend will grow right along with it, always nice for long term investors like me.

The conclusion that I come to is that Ormat is a great long term investment, but always around an earnings report I urge caution. Make sure never to buy all at once and slowly build your position in a stock. Develop a good cost basis and you should do find... take advantage of the dips and ride this one out, because this is a big part of the future of energy.

To learn even more about Ormat Technologies visit their website or check out Stock Picky's Tapping The Earth With Ormat!