Will Evergreen Solar Fly High On Investor Day?

"Once we get into the first quarter of next year we should start making money. We should go into the black and hopefully stay there," Chief Executive of Evergreen Solar Richard Feldt.

(ESLR) has only a 1.24 billion dollar market cap, a strong connection in Germany and a 1.85 billion dollar sales backlog as of the middle of May 2008, this company's stock is certainly worth taking a look at.

The Marlboro, Massachusetts-based company reported a first-quarter net loss of $25,000, or break-even on a per share basis, compared with a loss of $6.2 million, or 9 cents per share, in the year-earlier quarter.

Their new Devens plant opens this month and will be capable of producing 80 megawatts of wafer cells and panels a year based on Evergreen Solar's estimates.

Here is what you can expect on Thursday, June 18, 2008 from the press release...

Evergreen Solar Chairman and CEO Richard M. Feldt, Chief Financial Officer Michael El-Hillow and other members of the executive team will provide a strategic overview of the Company's business through a series of presentations. The meeting will be followed by a factory tour of the company’s new state-of the-art wafer, cell and String Ribbon™ solar panel manufacturing facility.

Just like Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), this stock could easily make a substantial move upwards once it begins consistently breaking into the black. I think it will even make a nice move on Thursday, as they show off their superior manufacturing capabilities during investor's day.

Now, I am not one for charts but you can obviously see the double top below, if you follow the company though, you would know that financial are in a much better position then they were even a year ago. Not only that, their recent stock offering which dilutes the shares artificially, have kept the share range bound. This dilution also makes it harder for any stock to go up in value initially.

Evergreen Solar looks to me like it is poised for a breakout, and this investor day could easily trigger it. Then again, I am a bit bias since Evergreen Solar has been one of my favorite long term stock picks...
What do you think of Evergreen Solar's stock?

Evergreen Solar Announces 1 Billion In Contracts

Evergreen Solar (eslr) surged over 20% yesterday as it announced that is had signed two contracts worth approximately 1 billion dollars. Evergreen Solar and German-based Ralos Vertriebs GmbH signed an agreement valued at approximately $750 million for panel deliveries beginning in 2008 and extending through 2013. They also signed an agreement just last week with an unnamed United States-based installer, for approximately $250 million. Both of these contracts are going to be manufactured in their Devens, Massachusetts plant.

In addition to the two contracts listed above Evergreen Solar (eslr) already has a backlog of $850 million from six different sources to be completed in Ever-Q, it's German based joint venture.

Here is what the big whigs at Evergreen Solar had to say about the recent contracts...

“We offer our customers a long-term value proposition because our string ribbon technology consumes less than half of the polysilicon as compared to the industry average, which enables us to provide a unique combination of cost and cell conversion efficiency," said Richard M. Feldt, Evergreen Solar's president and chief executive officer. “We will enter into selective long-term supply agreements with additional companies that also bring differentiated value to their customers and serve markets that are at the forefront of solar growth.”


So, here we are watching a company that has 1.85 billion dollar in backlog yet the entire company itself is only worth 1.32 billion by market cap! Based on this factor alone it would appear that Evergreen Solar is grossly undervalue at these levels. One of the biggest problems with solar companies is the perceived shortage of polysilicon. Evergreen has this covered already though as they have signed several long term supply agreements over the past year.

Here at Stock Picky we have been behind ESLR for a long, long time and we still believe that it is a great buy even at these much higher levels then just a couple days ago. The key of course is to not buy all at once, take advantage of the dips and always invest for the long-term. After all, this stock was a buy at $100 oil, but now at $135 people will be flocking to alternative energy plays like this one. To research more into this company check out all of our Evergreen Solar articles here!

Ormat Technologies, The Pure Play On Geothermal

Ormat Technologies ticker NYSE:(ora) might be looking a little pricey at first glance with it's 75 p/e, but with earnings coming up on May 6, 2008 after the close, we will soon know if the run up the past 3 months really has legs to break through it's 52 week high of $57.93. Here is their chart since becoming publicly traded...


Now for some background information in case you are not familiar with Ormat Technologies. The company designs, develops, owns and operates geothermal and recovered energy-based power plants around the world. Additionally, the company designs, manufactures and sells geothermal and recovered energy power units and other power-generating equipment, and provides related services. Ormat Technologies has more than four decades of experience in the development of environmentally-sound power, primarily in geothermal and recovered-energy generation.

The coming election is increasingly looking like alternative energy is going to win no matter if a Democrat or Republican is elected. Sure, there is Solar, but a lot of people don't realize the potential of geothermal and heat recovery systems. Ormat is the only pure play, just look at these numbers...

They also have just recently announced two deals one in Montana...

Montana-Dakota Utilities Co. have announced that Ormat has entered into an Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) agreement to build a 5.3 MW recovered energy generation facility to be located in Morton County, North Dakota. The facility, which is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2009, will produce electricity without burning additional fuel. The project, subject to regulatory approvals, will increase the utilization of the energy content by approximately 25 percent and will produce enough renewable energy to supply about 5,000 residential electric customers in Montana-Dakota's service territory.

And one in Nevada... I particularly like this side of Ormat's business... retrofitting existing power plants and turning the heat that is given off as waste into energy!

Energy Holdings Company, and Ormat Technologies Inc. have announced plans to build a six-megawatt (MW) waste-heat recovery renewable energy project in the Goodsprings area south of Las Vegas. The project, subject to regulatory approvals, is scheduled to be completed in 2010 and will produce enough renewable energy to supply 1,200 residential customers in southern Nevada. The best part about these waste-heat recovery systems is that they will generate additional power with no increase in emissions. Check out this slide that shows the dependability and cost effectiveness of various forms of energy...

If that wasn't enough, I also like Ormat's Dividend policy which is for an annual payout ratio of at least 20% of the Company’s net income, subject to Board approval. That means that as Ormat grows it's dividend will grow right along with it, always nice for long term investors like me.

The conclusion that I come to is that Ormat is a great long term investment, but always around an earnings report I urge caution. Make sure never to buy all at once and slowly build your position in a stock. Develop a good cost basis and you should do find... take advantage of the dips and ride this one out, because this is a big part of the future of energy.

To learn even more about Ormat Technologies visit their website or check out Stock Picky's Tapping The Earth With Ormat!

Time To Revisit Evergreen Solar

Over the past couple years it has been quite easy to see the correlation between solar stock prices and oil prices, but lately with the markets have been self destructing, and no one has been ready to take on any "speculative" solar plays like Evergreen Solar (ESLR). This is a stock that was just trading at $18.85 just three months ago! Today even with the Dow surging 420 points Evergreen Solar is sitting at $8.23 while oil is well over $100 per barrel.

So why did the stock plummet like that in just three months is the question you need to ask yourself. Well, first of all the market in general has been horrible, the number of companies hitting 52 week lows has been downright astonishing. That of course is not the whole story though, Evergreen Solar just finish a offering of stock at $9.50 per share. Evergreen Solar expects to use the net proceeds from the offering, together with funds it expects to raise by way of future debt financing and its operating activities, (i) to complete phase I of its new manufacturing facility in Devens, Massachusetts, (ii) to plan, construct and equip phase II of the Devens manufacturing facility and (iii) for general corporate purposes, including purchases or prepayments for raw materials, including polysilicon, and working capital. This offering further dilutes shares and investors can tend to see this as a negative, especially in the type of environment.

None the less, the future of this company is still looking quite bright from my point of view. Just this past year they announced several polysilicon supply agreements which will provide a generous supply of the material needed to make solar panels for the next 10 years. They have ramped up production on their Devens plant and expect to start shipping solar panels out of that location in mid-2008. Not too mention Evergreen Solar touts the most green solar panels on the market, which simply means they have the smallest carbon footprint of any panels on the market. With oil over $100 a barrel I am shocked to see ESLR trading so low, and I have been taking advantage by added to my long term position at these levels. The long term bull market in solar power and other alternative energies is here to stay and Evergreen Solar is a great way to play it.

What can I say though it was hard to single out ESLR with so many stocks having been tossed in the garbage as the markets crashed. I still like Google, CECO Environmental Corp, Zoltek, Vasco Data Securities, Royal Bank Of Canada, and YUM Brands all at these levels. As a younger investor this downturn in the market has been like a God send. What an opportunity to get into great companies at bargain basement prices.

Better hurry though these sales aren't going to last long I am afraid...

As a side note our pole here at Stock Picky has closed and the major of voters say that 2008 will be a bear market. So far the bears do have the upper hand, but I think that by years end we will see the market averages hit new highs.

Evergreen Solar Reports Surprise Profit

Evergreen solar (eslr) reported results for the fourth quarter 2007 this afternoon. The results surprised many who follow the stock. Analysis on average were looking for a loss of 4 cents per share. ESLR today reported a small profit of 1 cent per share.

Revenue in the fourth quarter was $22.2 million, which was also above Wall Street's average estimate of $20.2 million. The strength of EverQ accounted for $5.3 million of the company's revenue. Gross margins also improved to 28.1% compared to 24.9% for the third quarter of 2007.

Of course, here at Stock Picky we have been behind Evergreen solar since $9.60... The stock now stands at $12.33 after falling from as much as $18.85 after it announced a 10 year supply agreement for polysilicon. Things seem to be getting better and better for Evergreen Solar the company, and it will only take so long before the stock follows suit and begins to push higher.

Even here in the states Evergreen has teamed up for a four year project with the Massachusetts Municipal Wholesale Electric Co. and Governor Deval Patrick's Commonwealth Solar program to install photocoltaic systems on schools and other high-profile public buildings. This kind of free goodwill advertising is just what Evergreen needs to bring this company into the mainstream...

A big congratulations to all the longs out there on this profitable quarter. For more reasons to consider building a position in Evergreen Solar check out our original post for October!

Fueling The Winds Of Change With Zoltek

First of all, I just want to say that the market has been very hard to take the past month or two. What you need to remember, is that we are in it for the long haul. If you are an investor that thinks long-term, you should be drooling over all of the values out there in the market today. Even with an "economic slow down" here in the states, it really doesn't change the global growth stories of plenty of companies out there today.

For instance, Intel just reported today only 2 cents under estimates yet it is hammered in after hours. The market is overreacting and focusing on any negative news, without even considering a tomorrow. Now is the time to be concentrating on the future, a long term investor needs to be ready to buy at these moments, not panic like some many people tend to do.

That being said, my next long term pick is the carbon fiber producer Zoltek (zolt). This company is the leading producer of the carbon fibers that go into producing wind turbines, a growing source of green energy. This relatively small company (1.26 Billion Market Cap), has signed long term supply contracts with the top manufactures of wind turbines in the entire world! Gamesa Group of Spain, DeWind and the world's largest producer Vestas Wind System will be begin to be reflected in Zoltek's bottom line very soon.

In case you missed the figures wind energy is projected to grow at 25% per year worldwide, and I personally think this is a pretty conservative estimate. As I stated earlier with Evergreen Solar and Ormat Technologies, green energy is going to become the next multi-year bull market.

Zoltek is in one of the sweet spots, and appears to have a near monopoly on a key area of this growing trend. Their revenues have been growing at a very impressive rate and should only continue to do so with it's recent announcement that it had purchased the Guadalajara, Mexico-based Crysel Acrylic Fiber.

As if that weren't enough reason to own Zoltek, they also have the potential to be huge in the automotive market as their light weight carbon fiber could easily be used in the manufacturing of more fuel efficient vehicles. Think about it, the government is just beginning it's push to increase fuel standards, and as oil rises the process will only speed up.

Yeah the market is pretty bearish right now, but there is always plenty of companies to pick up on sale at this level. Always, don't buy all at once and focus long-term... as with all things, this will pass...

Tapping The Earth With Ormat

Ormat Technologies NYSE: ORA is in a perfect situation as alternative energies begin to take flight. Just like the red hot solar stocks, Ormat is a play on the growing demand for alternative energy. What makes them unique is that they use geothermal power and other eco-friendly sources to generate revenue. In case you aren't familiar with the geothermal process, it is basically capturing the heat given off from the earth and turning it into electricity. The great part about this process is that it emits little or no emissions.

Not only this, but they operate in countries all over the world, so you certainly don't have to worry about any kind of "slowdown" here in The States...



Geothermal is not the only part of Ormat though, what I really think could be huge is the Recovered Energy Generation potential. What Ormat has done, is made it possible to take the heat that is waisted on a typical power plant, and harnessing it back into energy. That's right what a simple concept that should be adapted by power plants all around the world that are just literally blowing off steam...

Ormat Technologies is a small company that just became public in 2005, so it still has plenty of upside potential. They even have rather unique dividend policy, in which they are aiming to pay at least 20% of their annual profits through quarterly dividends. Which is just another potential huge reason to own this company, as it continues to earn more money in the future.
Now, it does have a sky high P/e ratio of 83, so it is by no means inexpensive, but there are a lot of people out there that see how explosive this company could become with climate change and pollution coming to the front lines. Ormat Technologies Inc. reported 3rd quarter 2007 earnings of $0.41 per share on 11/6/2007. This beat the $0.31 consensus of the 7 analysts covering the company.

As a fair warning, this is a small company with a high p/e ratio which can be the recipe for disaster. While I think that Ormat is a great long term investment, as always the best idea is to not buy all at once. I would buy a little bit here, and then wait until after the fed meeting to see if you can get in at a lower price. As I write this Ormat Technologies is trading at $50.11...