Blood In The Streets

Today marked one of the worst collapses in financial history as the Dow lost 778 points or almost 7% as the House failed to pass a bill for 750 billion dollars to help the credit markets. The Nasdaq had it even worse losing over 9% or 199 points! Brutal, absolutely brutal!

Now I hate to beat a dead horse, but if you are a long term investor this is not the end of the world. In fact, because in most cases the baby is getting thrown out with the bathwater there might even be some stocks worth owning that are looking very cheap. Unfortunately, this credit crisis has spread into mainstream and there is really no way to tell how long this will last. That is why it was so crucial to pass the bill that failed today. Every day that passes without a resolution will be a blood bath... sure not as bad as today hopefully, but who knows, there isn't any certainty what so ever which is very bad for stocks in general.

Now there are companies that I would still be picking up at this point. Let's all remember that there will be a tomorrow and a next week, next month and next year. The election is quickly approaching and both candidates are preaching investing in solar and wind power. So with that in mind I still like ESLR which was beaten up very badly by the fallout with Lehman Brothers and now stands at just over $6! I really can't believe it got that cheap, but the whole thing with Lehman Brothers caused a panic and the stock sold off. Another one I like at these levels is ORA Ormat technologies which today hit a fresh 52 week low at 36.39. These two companies are going to benefit from the next president, especially if it is Barrack Obama who has a real plan to change or energy structure.

I have said it before and I will say it again, Google GOOG is just an unbelievable buy at these levels. Today it fell $46 to $385, that's right $385! This gives it just a 25 P/E ratio! For a company that grows like Google this is very reasonable.

Now could everything crash again tomorrow and the next day? Sure, but how about 2-4 years down the line? The market will correct itself from time to time, this all be it is a real problem and we need congress to pass something ASAP, until then we will most likely drift lower.

As always, buy in increments and over time your investments will do fine. Good luck to all and most importantly don't panic...

Evergreen Solar Announces The Biggest Contract In Its History

Evergreen Solar (ESLR) shares rose nearly 11.5% today as they announced a 1.2 Billion, yes with a "B" contract with the German company IBC Solar. I am sure some of you have never heard of IBC Solar so here are the quick facts. They where established in 1982 and have installed solar panels in more than 50,000 locations!

Of course this is great for Evergreen Solar which has been beaten down along with the market and since its offering of new notes this contract raises their backlog to almost 3 Billion with only 5 customers! This contract further extends through 2013 which gives ESLR even more earnings visibility. Here is what the big wigs had to say...

“We are very pleased to begin this significant long term relationship with IBC SOLAR, the largest PV distributor in the world”, said Richard M. Feldt, Evergreen Solar's chairman, president and chief executive officer. “This contract represents the single largest contract in the history of our company and is one of the largest contracts ever between a panel manufacturer and a distributor.”

“Quality comes first at IBC SOLAR”, said Udo Möhrstedt, President and CEO of IBC SOLAR. “Our aim is to make the use of solar energy easy and competitive for our customers. Evergreen’s solar panels are one of the highest quality products in the industry. By adding Evergreen to our product portfolio, we can meet the growing demand of our customers.”

This news comes as The Michigan Economic Growth Authority Tuesday approved a 10-year, 100 percent high-tech employment tax credit for Evergreen Solar (ESLR). Valued at $1.8 million this will help with their new Midland, Michigan plant. Not only this, but the City of Midland will give Evergreen Solar a $3.9 million property tax credit.

This company is on a roll this year, but watch out they are just about to report their earnings on Thursday July 17th, so be careful if you are just starting to build a position into this stock. There is no doubt that Evergreen Solar is a great Long Term Investment, but a earnings miss here would obviously hurt the stock in the short term. As always average into this one as it is very volatile. It looks like though that any time you can pick up ESLR for under $10 at this point would be a great time to buy more. Certainly don't wait too long before jumping into the water, the analyst have really been waking up and smelling the money on this one. The simple fact that Evergreen Solar is only a 1.24 Billion Dollar is has almost 3 billion is sales backlog! This stock is prime for a serious breakout if earnings don't disappoint and this stock is still undiscovered by mainstream wallstreet.

Will Evergreen Solar Fly High On Investor Day?

"Once we get into the first quarter of next year we should start making money. We should go into the black and hopefully stay there," Chief Executive of Evergreen Solar Richard Feldt.

(ESLR) has only a 1.24 billion dollar market cap, a strong connection in Germany and a 1.85 billion dollar sales backlog as of the middle of May 2008, this company's stock is certainly worth taking a look at.

The Marlboro, Massachusetts-based company reported a first-quarter net loss of $25,000, or break-even on a per share basis, compared with a loss of $6.2 million, or 9 cents per share, in the year-earlier quarter.

Their new Devens plant opens this month and will be capable of producing 80 megawatts of wafer cells and panels a year based on Evergreen Solar's estimates.

Here is what you can expect on Thursday, June 18, 2008 from the press release...

Evergreen Solar Chairman and CEO Richard M. Feldt, Chief Financial Officer Michael El-Hillow and other members of the executive team will provide a strategic overview of the Company's business through a series of presentations. The meeting will be followed by a factory tour of the company’s new state-of the-art wafer, cell and String Ribbon™ solar panel manufacturing facility.

Just like Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), this stock could easily make a substantial move upwards once it begins consistently breaking into the black. I think it will even make a nice move on Thursday, as they show off their superior manufacturing capabilities during investor's day.

Now, I am not one for charts but you can obviously see the double top below, if you follow the company though, you would know that financial are in a much better position then they were even a year ago. Not only that, their recent stock offering which dilutes the shares artificially, have kept the share range bound. This dilution also makes it harder for any stock to go up in value initially.

Evergreen Solar looks to me like it is poised for a breakout, and this investor day could easily trigger it. Then again, I am a bit bias since Evergreen Solar has been one of my favorite long term stock picks...
What do you think of Evergreen Solar's stock?

Evergreen Solar Announces 1 Billion In Contracts

Evergreen Solar (eslr) surged over 20% yesterday as it announced that is had signed two contracts worth approximately 1 billion dollars. Evergreen Solar and German-based Ralos Vertriebs GmbH signed an agreement valued at approximately $750 million for panel deliveries beginning in 2008 and extending through 2013. They also signed an agreement just last week with an unnamed United States-based installer, for approximately $250 million. Both of these contracts are going to be manufactured in their Devens, Massachusetts plant.

In addition to the two contracts listed above Evergreen Solar (eslr) already has a backlog of $850 million from six different sources to be completed in Ever-Q, it's German based joint venture.

Here is what the big whigs at Evergreen Solar had to say about the recent contracts...

“We offer our customers a long-term value proposition because our string ribbon technology consumes less than half of the polysilicon as compared to the industry average, which enables us to provide a unique combination of cost and cell conversion efficiency," said Richard M. Feldt, Evergreen Solar's president and chief executive officer. “We will enter into selective long-term supply agreements with additional companies that also bring differentiated value to their customers and serve markets that are at the forefront of solar growth.”


So, here we are watching a company that has 1.85 billion dollar in backlog yet the entire company itself is only worth 1.32 billion by market cap! Based on this factor alone it would appear that Evergreen Solar is grossly undervalue at these levels. One of the biggest problems with solar companies is the perceived shortage of polysilicon. Evergreen has this covered already though as they have signed several long term supply agreements over the past year.

Here at Stock Picky we have been behind ESLR for a long, long time and we still believe that it is a great buy even at these much higher levels then just a couple days ago. The key of course is to not buy all at once, take advantage of the dips and always invest for the long-term. After all, this stock was a buy at $100 oil, but now at $135 people will be flocking to alternative energy plays like this one. To research more into this company check out all of our Evergreen Solar articles here!

Time To Revisit Evergreen Solar

Over the past couple years it has been quite easy to see the correlation between solar stock prices and oil prices, but lately with the markets have been self destructing, and no one has been ready to take on any "speculative" solar plays like Evergreen Solar (ESLR). This is a stock that was just trading at $18.85 just three months ago! Today even with the Dow surging 420 points Evergreen Solar is sitting at $8.23 while oil is well over $100 per barrel.

So why did the stock plummet like that in just three months is the question you need to ask yourself. Well, first of all the market in general has been horrible, the number of companies hitting 52 week lows has been downright astonishing. That of course is not the whole story though, Evergreen Solar just finish a offering of stock at $9.50 per share. Evergreen Solar expects to use the net proceeds from the offering, together with funds it expects to raise by way of future debt financing and its operating activities, (i) to complete phase I of its new manufacturing facility in Devens, Massachusetts, (ii) to plan, construct and equip phase II of the Devens manufacturing facility and (iii) for general corporate purposes, including purchases or prepayments for raw materials, including polysilicon, and working capital. This offering further dilutes shares and investors can tend to see this as a negative, especially in the type of environment.

None the less, the future of this company is still looking quite bright from my point of view. Just this past year they announced several polysilicon supply agreements which will provide a generous supply of the material needed to make solar panels for the next 10 years. They have ramped up production on their Devens plant and expect to start shipping solar panels out of that location in mid-2008. Not too mention Evergreen Solar touts the most green solar panels on the market, which simply means they have the smallest carbon footprint of any panels on the market. With oil over $100 a barrel I am shocked to see ESLR trading so low, and I have been taking advantage by added to my long term position at these levels. The long term bull market in solar power and other alternative energies is here to stay and Evergreen Solar is a great way to play it.

What can I say though it was hard to single out ESLR with so many stocks having been tossed in the garbage as the markets crashed. I still like Google, CECO Environmental Corp, Zoltek, Vasco Data Securities, Royal Bank Of Canada, and YUM Brands all at these levels. As a younger investor this downturn in the market has been like a God send. What an opportunity to get into great companies at bargain basement prices.

Better hurry though these sales aren't going to last long I am afraid...

As a side note our pole here at Stock Picky has closed and the major of voters say that 2008 will be a bear market. So far the bears do have the upper hand, but I think that by years end we will see the market averages hit new highs.

Evergreen Solar Reports Surprise Profit

Evergreen solar (eslr) reported results for the fourth quarter 2007 this afternoon. The results surprised many who follow the stock. Analysis on average were looking for a loss of 4 cents per share. ESLR today reported a small profit of 1 cent per share.

Revenue in the fourth quarter was $22.2 million, which was also above Wall Street's average estimate of $20.2 million. The strength of EverQ accounted for $5.3 million of the company's revenue. Gross margins also improved to 28.1% compared to 24.9% for the third quarter of 2007.

Of course, here at Stock Picky we have been behind Evergreen solar since $9.60... The stock now stands at $12.33 after falling from as much as $18.85 after it announced a 10 year supply agreement for polysilicon. Things seem to be getting better and better for Evergreen Solar the company, and it will only take so long before the stock follows suit and begins to push higher.

Even here in the states Evergreen has teamed up for a four year project with the Massachusetts Municipal Wholesale Electric Co. and Governor Deval Patrick's Commonwealth Solar program to install photocoltaic systems on schools and other high-profile public buildings. This kind of free goodwill advertising is just what Evergreen needs to bring this company into the mainstream...

A big congratulations to all the longs out there on this profitable quarter. For more reasons to consider building a position in Evergreen Solar check out our original post for October!

Stock Outlook 2008

As another year comes to close, we can't just sit back and rest on our gains from the year that was 2007. Sure, Evergreen Solar (eslr), Ormat Technologies (ora), Yum Brands (yum) and the almighty Google (goog) were all great plays for this past year, but you have to ask yourself, what is next? What will be the best bull markets of 2008?

I believe 2008 will be the another year of the green! Alternative energy and any pollution reduction company will reign supreme as the governments around the world, (maybe even ours here in the states) begin to make these pressing issues a priority. It seems like you can't turn around these days and not hear something about climate change, pollution and expensive dirty energy. Stocks like Zoltec (zolt), which is one of the leaders in producing carbon fibers used in Wind Turbines, and Evergreen Solar (eslr) are going to continue their run in 2008 as more and more investors realize the explosive growth these industries can provide. With oil prices continuing to climb, manufacturing cost dropping due to government subsidies and a general increase in demand, the whole sector should do well. Solar, Geothermal, and wind power are the future, and now is your chance to make some green off of these clean renewable energy companies.

The next year will also be another year to watch China continue to expand at a insane pace. While I am not too fond of Chinese stocks, I think that Yum Brands is a way to get great Chinese exposure without investing in Communism. Kentucky Fried Chicken is opening up a store a day in China, and will only benefit even more with the buzz and increased traffic from the coming Olympics. There is a lot of opportunity in the Chinese market, but I just have something against a country that censors it's own news and internet. Enter at your own risk...

Two picks that have turned a bit soar since I recommended them, Boeing(ba) and Royal Bank Of Canada(ry), I still believe will do well in 2008. Sure, these are two of the less exciting stock picks out there , but that doesn't mean there not worth owning over the long term. Boeing has orders lined up for years to come with countries around the world, and Royal Bank Of Canada was brought down somewhat unfairly by the downfall in US banks. They both pay a dividend, BA at 1.78% and RY at 3.98% yields. Not only that, but both companies just raised their dividend in their last quarter, which shows the confidence the management has in their future income.

My last two are Vacso Data Securities (Vdsi) and Google, no real surprise there, I have been behind these two for literally years now, and I think they will continue to vastly outperform the market. Vasco is still looking cheap here after it's big fall, and Google will dominate in 08 with it's mobile business, the ever-growing monster that is Internet and those other 100 projects they are working on.

So, am I still worried about subprime, a weak dollar, a possible recession and falling home prices? Well of course, but these stocks are all long term investments, and can be bought over time and many different prices just like any other stock out there. Just remember, never buy all at once, and always do the proper research before you ever buy a stock. It also helps if you really are interested in what the company itself that you are putting your hard earned money into, this can make the research much less tedious.



Happy investing in 2008 from all of us at Stock Picky!

For more information on any of the companies above just click the company's name in the above article.

Buy Evergreen Solar Ahead Of Earnings?

Well I certainly can't say that I would put too much down on the table before earnings on Thursday, but this certainly is a good stock to consider for the long run. Evergreen Solar (eslr) is small company that is quickly expanding it's manufacturing facilities not only here in the states, but in Germany as well with it's joint venture with Everq. Germany is arguable the leader in the world when it comes to Solar technology, so ESLR has it's eggs in the right basket. They are still operating at a loss though, so this play is not for the faint of heart. They are also very small compared to the other players out there with only a 960 million dollar market cap, but with great risk comes great rewards. Here is a look at their 1 year chart courtesy of Google Finance.


I believe things can only get better for this company as governments around the world begin to offer even more incentives for green energy. Climate change is becoming more of a reality ever day and I believe we are soon going to be scrambling to provide the world with cleaner forms of energy.

One of the things that separates Evergreen Solar from the rest of the solar industry is the fact that they manufacture wafers, cells and panels all under one roof which will allow them to more efficiently control costs, and perfect the manufacturing process. They also produce panels that have the smallest carbon footprint of any panels on the market today, and with their revolutionary quad furnace I think Evergreen has a leg up on the competition.

Is Evergreen the best solar play out there right now? Maybe not, two others to consider are SunPower Corp (SPWR) and Suntech (STP) but I think that a year or two down the line Evergreen will be vastly outperforming both of these stocks... What are your thoughts?

NASDAQ ESLR is trading at $9.60 as I write this...